Posted at 12 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Mar Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q1) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK Mar GDP (MoM) -0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•UK Mar Trade Balance -16.36B, -17.50B forecast, -17.53B previous
•UK Mar Trade Balance Non-EU -5.46B -6.69B forecast, -6.52B previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK Mar Industrial Production (MoM) 0.7%, 0.1% forecast,-0.2% previous
•UK Mar Industrial Production (YoY) -2.0%,-2.9% forecast,-3.1% previous
•UK Mar Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.7%,-0.1% forecast,0.0% previous
•UK Mar Manufacturing Production (YoY) -1.3%, -2.5% forecast,-2.4% previous
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q1)0.7%,-0.4% forecast,-0.2% previous
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q1)3.2%,11.9% forecast,10.8% previous
•French Apr CPI (MoM) 0.6%,0.6% forecast,0.7% previous
•French Apr French HICP (YoY) 6.9%,6.9% forecast,6.7% previous
•French Apr French HICP (MoM) 0.7%,0.7% forecast,1.0% previous
•Spanish Apr HICP (YoY) 3.8%,3.8% forecast,3.1% previous
•Spanish Apr (YoY) 4.1%,4.1% forecast,3.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Apr Import Price Index (MoM) 0.3% forecast,-0.6% previous
•12:30 US Apr Export Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast,-0.3% previous
•13:00 UK NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker 0.0% forecast,0.1% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.6% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.00% previous
•14:00 US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment 63.0 forecast ,63.5 previous
14:00 US May Michigan Current Conditions 67.0 forecast ,68.2 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 588 previous
•17:00 U.S U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 748 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Friday after soft economic data from the United States and China amplified fears of a global slowdown. Investors have been balancing weak economic data from the U.S. against sticky inflation in the euro area and hawkish remarks from European Central Bank officials reiterating that the ECB has more ground to cover.An ECB survey on Thursday showed that consumers had raised their inflation expectations in March for the first time since October last year, even as the rate of price growth fell. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0950(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0977(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0893 (38.2%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0818(Lower BB).
.GBP/USD: The pound steadied on Friday after data showed the UK economy avoided recession in the first quarter, recovering from its biggest one-day drop since mid-April the previous day.Sterling was last up 0.1% against the dollar at $1.252. It fell nearly 1% on Thursday after the Bank of England raised interest rates and said it would stay the course.But with consumer inflation running at 10.1%, investors had long prepared for a more aggressive stance from the BoE, whose move gave no new incentive to actively buy the pound, but also few to sell it.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2576 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2616 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2496(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2439(May 1st low).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Friday as investors assessed recent U.S. data that signalled a slowing economy and its impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. The dollar index was unchanged at 102.09 on Friday, on its way to a weekly gain of 0.82%.But the overall trend for the greenback remained down. It has fallen more than 11% since hitting a 20-year high last year and has slipped in seven of the last nine weeks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8955(30DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8991 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8876(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8827(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollars strengthened against Japan's yen on Friday as investors assessed further clarity on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. The U.S. Federal Reserve will probably need to raise interest rates further if inflation stays high, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Friday, adding that data this month has not convinced her that price pressures are receding. Against the yen , the dollar was up 0.1% to 134.67 on Friday. Strong resistance can be seen at 135.44(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.00(psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.04(30DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 133.77(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday after upbeat results from Richemont underscored strength in the luxury sector, while investors assessed inflation data from France and Spain for signals on the European Central Bank's interest rate hike plans.
At (GMT 12:24),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.41 percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 0.43 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were on track to fall for a third straight session on Friday, weighed by higher yields and a steady dollar, but the bullion retained its spot over the key $2,000 level on expectations of interest rate cuts towards the end the year.
Spot gold was down 0.6% to $2,003.08 per ounce by 1001 GMT, and fell 0.7% for the week. U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $2,006.60.
Oil prices stabilised on Friday and were set to end the week flat as the market balanced supply fears against renewed economic concerns in the United States and China.
Brent crude futures was down 5 cents, or 0.07%, at $74.93 a barrel by 1145 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude futures were up 4 cents, or 0.06%, at $70.91.