Posted at 12 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Mar PPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast,-0.5% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 245.25K,245K forecast,242K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,813K,1,820K forecast, 1,805K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 245.25K, 220.35K forecast, 239.25K previous
•US Apr Core PPI (YoY) 3.2%,3.3% forecast, 3.4% previous
•US Apr Core PPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•US Apr PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 3.4%,0.1% previous
•US Apr PPI (YoY) 2.3%, 2.4% forecast,2.7% previous
•US Natural Gas Storage 78B,74B forecast,54B previous
• US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.605% forecast, 5.840% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.680% forecast, 5.400% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•02:00 Australia May Westpac Consumer Sentiment -1.7% forecast, 9.4% previous
•03:00 New Zealand Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 3.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Thursday as traders sought safety after a series of economic data prompted a reassessment of their outlook for global monetary policy. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits jumped to a 1-1/2-year high last week, pointing to cracks in the labor market as demand slows, potentially giving the Federal Reserve room to halt further interest rate increases next month.U.S. producer prices, on the other hand, showed a moderate rise last month, posting the smallest annual increase in producer inflation in more than two years, further evidence that inflation pressures were easing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0962(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1006(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0926 (38.2%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0902(Lower BB).
.GBP/USD: The pound eased against dollar on Thursday after Bank of England raises rates to 4.5%. The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.5% on Thursday, taking borrowing costs to their highest since 2008 with its 12th consecutive rate rise, as it seeks to curb the fastest inflation of any major economy.The central bank no longer predicts recession after it revised up its growth forecasts from gloomy numbers released in February, the biggest such improvement since it first published forecasts in 1997. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2572 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2622(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2488(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2422(May 2nd low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, posting its biggest decline since early March, as oil prices fell and U.S. data added to evidence that the economy is slowing down The data was seen as consistent with most economists' expectations of a recession by the end of the year. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including oil. The price of oil fell 2.3% as a political standoff over the U.S. debt ceiling added to recession jitters, while Wall Street was pressured by another rout in the regional banking sector. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3505 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3560 (38.2% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3460(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3420 (5DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollars strengthened against Japan's yen on Thursday as dollar advanced as investors digested the impact of weak data on the interest rate outlook. Financial markets are pricing in at least 50 basis points of interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve by the end of 2023, suggesting a resilient economy and a strong labor market will give in to recession this year.But the Fed, which last week signaled a pause to one of its most aggressive tightening campaigns in history, pushed back on speculation that will soon consider cutting rates as inflation still runs more than twice the 2% target.Strong resistance can be seen at 134.72(11DMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 135.97 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 133.57(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.85(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 was unchanged on Thursday as a drag by Germany's Bayer and energy stocks offset an earlier rise on hopes of a pause in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike campaign amid supportive U.S. economic data.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.15 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.39 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0. 28 percent..
The Dow and the S&P 500 ended lower on Thursday, dragged down by Walt Disney Co as it lost subscribers, while PacWest led declines in regional banks after posting a drop in deposits
Dow Jones closed down by 0.66 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.17 percent, Nasdaq finished the up by 0.18 percent.
Treasuries Recap
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday on news of smaller producer price increases, bolstering expectations that an easing of inflationary pressures will lead the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate increases.
Benchmark 10-year notes were last at 3.397%, down 4 basis points on the day, while two-year yields edged higher to 3.906%, erasing an earlier drop. The yield curve inversion between two-year and 10-year yields US2US10=TWEB deepened to minus 52 basis points.
Commodities Recap
Gold retreated on Thursday as rival safe-haven dollar advanced and outweighed support for bullion from lingering economic risks, while traders digested the impact of weak data on the interest rate outlook.
Spot gold was down 0.8% to $2,013.84 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. EDT (1740 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled down 0.8% to $2,020.50.
Oil prices fell about 2% to a one-week low on Thursday as a political standoff over the U.S. debt ceiling stoked recession jitters in the world's biggest oil consumer, while rising U.S. jobless claims and weak Chinese economic data weighed.
Brent crude futures fell $1.43, or 1.9%, to settle at $74.98 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell $1.69, or 2.3%, to settle at $70.87.