Posted at 09 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Apr Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 0.1%,1.7% forecast,1.6% previous
•UK Apr Halifax House Price Index (MoM) -0.3%, 0.2% forecast,0.8% previous
•French Apr Reserve Assets Total 216,264.0M. 217,784.0M previous
•French Mar Trade Balance -8.0B,-9.3B forecast,-9.9B previous
•French Mar Imports 58.5B,60.4B previous
•French Mar Current Account 1.40B,-3.30B forecast,-3.00B previous
•French Mar Exports 50.5B, 51.0B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 1.3% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.254% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.089% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.204% previous
•14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 48.2 forecast,47.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:05 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Tuesday as dollar gained ahead of U.S. inflation data that will provide fresh clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Traders are currently pricing in an 88% chance of the U.S. central bank holding rates in June, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that policy decisions will be data driven, while also hinting at a likely pause in the cycle. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index edged up 0.1% to 101.5, but remained near recent lows. The euro dipped 0.2% to $1.0980 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1015(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1046(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0963 (38.2%fib ), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0935(Lower BB).
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GBP/USD: Sterling eased against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday but stayed close to the previous day's one-year high, ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) policy decision later this week. Stronger-than-expected economic data in the UK, which has so far dodged a deep recession, is one factor behind the pound's robust performance, as well as a weaker dollar, which has been dragged down by slower U.S. inflation and by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate hiking cycle. At 0904 GMT, the pound was down 0.3% against the dollar at$1.26145. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2657 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2672(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2576(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2477(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against Swiss franc on Tuesday as strong U.S. jobs data crushed hopes of a pause in monetary tightening, with investors gathering focus on upcoming inflation data for more clues on interest rate trends. The robust U.S. payrolls report last week quashed bets the Federal Reserve would pause rate hikes, and any surprise from consumer prices due on Wednesday would further challenge wagers for a rate cut as soon as September. Forecasts are for a rise of 0.4% in April for both the headline and core CPI, with the annual pace of core inflation likely slowing just a tick away from 5.5%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8936(Daly high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8977 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8894(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8855(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against Japan's yen on Tuesday as yen was aided by comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday the central bank will end its yield curve control policy and then start shrinking its balance sheet, once prospects heighten for inflation to sustainably hit its 2% target.Speaking in parliament, Ueda said Japan's economy was picking up and inflation expectations remain at high levels. Under yield curve control (YCC), the BOJ sets a short-term interest rate target of -0.1% and caps the 10-year bond yield around zero as part of efforts to durably hit its price goal. Strong resistance can be seen at 135.70(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.75(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.65(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 134.22(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Tuesday after a string of downbeat corporate updates soured sentiment, which has been tested in the days leading up to crucial U.S. economic data that would shed more light on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy plans.
At (GMT 12:21),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.48 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.37 percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 0.98 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up on Tuesday with focus on the U.S. inflation readings for hints on future U.S. Federal Reserve rate strategy as economic uncertainties prevailed.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,030.43 per ounce by 1021 GMT, while U.S. gold futures added 0.2% to $2,037.90.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday, relinquishing some of the strong gains of the previous two sessions with the market cautious ahead of U.S. inflation figures, which will be key to the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision.
The Brent crude price was down 68 cents, or 0.9%, at $76.33 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 69 cents, or 0.9%, to trade at $72.47 by 1022 GMT.