Posted at 05 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Apr Unemployment Rate s.a. 1.9%,1.9% forecast,1.9% previous
•Swiss Apr Unemployment Rate n.s.a 2.0%, 2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous
• German Mar Factory Orders (MoM) -10.7%, -2.2% forecast, 4.8% previous
•Swiss Apr CPI (YoY) 2.6%,2.8% forecast,2.9% previous
•Swiss Apr CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q1) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Italian Mar Retail Sales (MoM) 0.0%,0.0% forecast, -0.1% previous
•Italian Mar Italian Retail Sales (YoY) 5.8%,4.4% forecast, 5.8% previous
•UK Apr Construction PMI 51.1,51.0 forecast,50.7 previous
•EU Mar Retail Sales (YoY) -3.8%, -3.1% forecast, -3.0% previous
•EU Mar Retail Sales (MoM) -1.2%, -0.1% forecast,-0.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Apr Private Nonfarm Payrolls 160K forecast, 189K previous
•12:30 US Apr Participation Rate 65.6% forecast, 65.6% previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Unemployment Rate 5.1% forecast,5.0% previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Part Time Employment Change 15.9K previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Full Employment Change 18.8K previous
•12:30 Canada Apr Employment Change 20.0K forecast, 34.7K previous
•12:30 US Apr U6 Unemployment Rate 6.7% forecast, 6.7% previous
•12:30 US Apr Participation Rate 62.5% forecast,62.6% previous
•12:30 US Apr Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.2% forecast,4.2% previous
•12:30 US Apr Unemployment Rate 3.6% forecast,3.5% previous
•12:30 US Apr Average Weekly Hours 34.4 forecast,34.4 previous
•12:30 US Apr Government Payrolls -8.0K forecast,47.0K previous
•12:30 US Apr Manufacturing Payrolls -5K forecast,-1K previous
•12:30 US Apr Nonfarm Payrolls 180K forecast,236K previous
•12:30 US Apr Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 591 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 755 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 17:00 US Fed Governor Cook Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged on Friday as investors assessed ECB policy path. All ECB policymakers but one, Austria’s Robert Holzmann, backed the 25-basis-point increase in the ECB’s main deposit rate to 3.25%, which follows an unprecedented series of 75 and 50 basis point increases since last July.Money markets are currently pricing in less than two 25 basis points (bps) rate hikes by autumn as investors reckoned the ECB might pause with the deposit facility rate at 3.5% if May inflation data surprised on the downside. The euro was up around 0.2% at $1.1036 , but held below recent one-year peaks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1078(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1113(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1024 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0992(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose to just shy of a one-year high against the dollar on Friday as traders eyed the Bank of England’s interest rate decision next week. The pound has received a boost from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting this week, analysts said, when the central bank raised rates by 25 basis points but signalled that it may stop there. U.S. employment data, out at 1230 GMT on Friday, will provide clues as to the Fed’s likely next move. Sterling was up 0.21% at $1.26 on Friday, after reaching $1.263 earlier in the session, the highest since late May last year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2637 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2664(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2564(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2532(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Friday as investors awaited much-anticipated monthly U.S. jobs report. The April non-farm payrolls report later on Friday could provide the next steer for currency markets. Economists polled forecast the U.S. economy created 180,000 new jobs, versus 236,000 in March. Data released earlier this week showed that the U.S. services sector maintained a steady pace of growth in April, suggesting that inflation remains sticky, while U.S. private employers boosted hiring last month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8898(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8950 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8831(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8749(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against Japan's yen on Friday as banking sector woes added to talk of U.S. rate cuts later this year, ahead of the much-anticipated monthly U.S. jobs report. The dollar index , which measures the greenback's value against other major currencies, was down around 0.15% at 101.23 and set for a second straight week of falls. Growing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year has dimmed the outlook for the dollar. Investors now await data including U.S. non-farm payrolls figures at 1230 GMT, that could build the case for a rate cut, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on such expectations. Strong resistance can be seen at 134.86(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 135.26(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 133.28 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.19(April 5th low)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday as the European Central Bank's smaller rate hike as well as market-beating results from Adidas and Apple boost sentiment..
At (GMT 10:46),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.47 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.69 percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 0.51 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices drifted lower from near record highs on Friday as investors waited for more economic cues, but banking woes and hopes for a pause in U.S. rate hikes kept safe-haven bullion on course for its best week in nearly two months.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $2,038.84 per ounce by 0924 GMT, which some analysts termed a 'consolidation', but was up 2.5% for the week. U.S. gold futures shed 0.4% to $2,047.60.
Oil prices rose on Friday but were poised for a third straight week of losses after markets registered dramatic drops on fears of a weakening U.S. economy and slowing Chinese demand.
Brent crude rose $1.22, or 1.7%, to $73.72 a barrel by 0754 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up $1.11, or 1.6%, at $69.67 after four days of declines that sent the contract to lows last seen in late 2021.