Posted at 03 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian Mar Monthly Unemployment Rate 8.0% forecast,8.0% previous
•EU Mar Unemployment Rate 6.6% forecast,6.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:15 US Apr ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 148K forecast,145K previous
•13:45 US Apr Services PMI 53.7 forecast,52.6 previous
•13:45 US Apr S&P Global Composite PMI 53.5 forecast,52.3 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 57.0 forecast,52.2 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 52.6 forecast,51.3 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.8 forecast,51.2 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 59.9 forecast,59.5 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 54.5 forecast,55.4 previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.745M forecast,0.319M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.019M forecast,-0.081M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production 0.042M forecast,0.541M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -0.011M previous
•14:30US Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.114M forecast,0.151M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -1.084M forecast,-0.576M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -1.157M forecast,-2.408M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -1.100M forecast,-5.054M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•18:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 5.25% forecast, 5.00% previous
•18:00 US FOMC Statement
•18:30 US FOMC Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Wednesday as dollar fell ahead of an expected rise in U.S. interest rates. Markets are all but certain the Federal Reserve will announce a 25-basis-point rate hike when it announces its policy decision at 1800 GMT. If that happens, the focus will be on whether or how hard Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushes back on investors' expectations for rate cuts by year's end. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, fell by 0.3% to 101.56, dropping for a second day in a row. The euro was last up 0.3% at $1.1033, Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1047(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1076(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1011 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0947(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound steadied against dollar on Wednesday as traders prepared for the FOMC meeting this week and next week's BoE gathering. Current futures pricing indicates the Fed will deliver a final 25bp hike on Wednesday before holding rates steady to see if momentum from prior increases will move U.S. inflation toward the Fed's 2% target. The BoE's rate path is less binary than the Fed's, with +50bp, +25bp and steady rates potentially in play at the May 11 meeting. While the +50 and steady outcomes are outliers, traders will be keen to determine what the BoE's rate plans are for the near-term. Sterling rose 0.3% at $1.2509 and was flat against the euro at 88.20 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2503 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2529(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2461(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2410(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against Swiss franc on Wednesday as gloomy jobs data put the dollar on the defensive before a Federal Reserve interest rate announcement that will set the tone for markets globally. The dollar was down over 0.1% against six rivals after data showed on Tuesday that U.S. job openings fell for a third month in March and layoffs increased to the highest in more than two years.The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points when it concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday, with investors looking for signals the U.S. central bank will pause its rate increases. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8930 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8990 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8871(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.884295(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against Japan's yen on Wednesday as dollar dipped ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision . Markets are all but certain the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate hike at 1800 GMT. If that happens, the focus will be on whether or how hard Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushes back on investors' expectations for rate cuts by year's end. The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 135.50 per dollar, clawing back some of its losses from last week when the Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-loose monetary policy. Strong resistance can be seen at 136.54(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.89(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 135.95 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 135.10(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Wednesday as investors turn optimistic that U.S. Federal Reserve may signal a pause in its 14-month tightening cycle after raising interest rates for the last time later in the day.
At (GMT 11:58),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.22 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.68 percent, France’s CAC was trading up by 0.56 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices extended losses on Wednesday after plunging 5% in the previous session, as investors fretted about the health of the U.S. economy ahead of an expected Federal Reserve interest rate hike later in the day.
Brent futures fell $2.27, or 3%, to $73.05 a barrel by 1105 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell $2.28, or 3.1%, to $69.38.
Gold firmed well above the $2,000 level on Wednesday, buoyed by uncertainty surrounding the U.S. debt ceiling and other economic headwinds, while investors braced themselves for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.
Spot gold was little changed fell 0.06 % to $2,014.97 per ounce by 1135 GMT, after rising more than 1% on Tuesday.U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,025.40.