Posted at 02 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Mar Retail Sales (MoM) -2.4%, 0.4% forecast, -1.3% previous
•German Mar Retail Sales (YoY) -8.6%,-6.1% forecast,-7.1% previous
•UK Apr Nationwide HPI (MoM) 0.5%,0.4% forecast,-0.8% previous
•UK Apr Nationwide HPI (YoY)-2.7%,-3.6% forecast,-3.1% previous
•Italian Apr Manufacturing PMI 46.8,49.0 forecast,51.1 previous
•French Apr Manufacturing PMI 45.6,45.5 forecast,47.3 previous
•German Apr Manufacturing 44.5,44.0 forecast,44.7 previous
•EU Apr Manufacturing PMI 45.8,45.5 forecast,47.3 previous
• EU Mar M3 Money Supply (YoY) 2.5%, 2.4% forecast,2.9% previous
• EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) 2.9%,3.2% forecast,3.2% previous
• UK Apr Manufacturing PMI 47.8,46.6 forecast,47.9 previous
•EU Apr CPI (YoY) 7.0% ,7.0% forecast ,6.9% previous
•EU Apr CPI, n.s.a 123.16, 122.34 previous
• EU Core CPI (YoY)5.6%,5.7% forecast ,5.7% previous
• EU CPI (MoM) 0.7%,0.9% forecast ,0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.057% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.354% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.216% previous
•14:00 US Mar Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) -0.3% previous
•14:00 US Mar Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 3.5% previous
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.3% previous
•14:00 US JOLTs Job Openings 9.775M forecast,9.931M previous
•14:00 US Mar Factory Orders (MoM) 1.1% forecast,-0.7% previous
•15:00 Global Dairy Trade Price Index 3.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Release(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped after several data points underscored market expectations of a smaller 25 basis point ECB hike this week. The week is also significant in the United States with several pieces of data to be released, including job opening figures later in the day, and Friday's payrolls figures as well as a Federal Reserve meeting that wraps up on Wednesday. The euro was last at $1.0973, flat on the day, and back below the symbolic $1.10 level after Tuesday data showed euro zone banks are turning off the credit taps and a key gauge of inflation is finally falling. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1002 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1030(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0944(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0918(April 19th low).
GBP/USD: The pound fell on Tuesday, ignoring data highlighting a few bright spots in Britain’s economy, as investors focused more closely on the outlook for UK rates relative to others, after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a surprise hike. Data releases on Tuesday showed British factory output and new orders contracted at the start of the second quarter of 2023, but manufacturers were more optimistic and input costs rose at the weakest rate since May 2020. The BoE meets next week. Money markets show traders fully expect another quarter-point rise to 4.50% and then again to a peak of close to 4.90% by November. Sterling slipped by 0.3% against the dollar to $1.2457. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2513 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2588(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2454(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2404(April 16th low).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting starts later in the day. The Fed is expected to deliver another 25 basis point rate hike on Wednesday. Investors will focus on whether the U.S. central bank indicates that it expects to pause rate increases after May, or if it keeps alive the possibility of another hike in June or later. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8980 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9005 (19th April High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8910(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8895(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against Japan's yen on Tuesday as yen continued its steep descent as the implications of a steadfastly dovish Bank of Japan kept foreign exchange markets busy engaging in so called carry-trades . The BOJ on Friday opted to leave ultra-easy stimulus settings in place and embarked on a review of its monetary policy that could take 1-1/2 years, suggesting no hurry at all to normalize policy.The ECB and Fed decisions, along with the U.S. jobs data all come when Japan will be observing the Golden Week holidays, which run from Wednesday through to the end of the weekend. Strong resistance can be seen at 137.74(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 138.00(Psychological levl).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 137.17 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 136.20(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Tuesday as markets opened after the Labour Day weekend, with a drag in oil and gas stocks offsetting gains from banking shares.
At (GMT 12:19),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.42 percent, France’s CAC was trading down by 0.67 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices traded in a narrow band on Tuesday as investors awaited clues on the path of interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,987.99 per ounce by 1053 GMT, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,996.00.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday on weak economic data from China and expectations of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) this week.
Brent crude fell 42 cents, or 0.53%, to to $78.89 a barrel by 1037 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 46 cents, or 0.61% to $75.20.