Posted at 01 May 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Fed likely to raise rate by 25 bps on Wednesday
•Latest OPEC+ output cuts of 1.16 mln bpd take effect from Monday
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Apr Manufacturing PMI 50.2 forecast,48.6 previous
•13:45 US Apr Manufacturing PMI 50.4 forecast, 49.2 previous
•14:00US Mar Construction Spending (MoM) 0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 45.5 forecast,44.3 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Manufacturing Employment 47.9 forecast, 46.9 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI 46.8 forecast,46.3 previous
•14:00 US Apr ISM Manufacturing Prices 49.0 forecast,49.2 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.065% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.840% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro fell on Monday as the dollar ticked up ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting due this week. Data on Friday highlighted that U.S. consumer spending was unchanged in March, while underlying inflation pressures remained strong, which could see the U.S. central bank raising interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on May 2-3, and investors are largely expecting a 25 basis-point interest rate hike. The euro slipped 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1012 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1023 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1080(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0976 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0912(April 19th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased against the dollar on Friday traders braced for a packed week of central bank meetings that would offer the latest guidance on future rate hikes across continents. The BoE is widely expected to raise borrowing costs again on May 11 after its monthly monetary policy meeting, with inflation running at five times its 2% target. Investors are putting a 92% probability on a 25 basis-point increase in Bank Rate to 4.5% and roughly 50 chance of hitting 5% by August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2567 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2582(May 28th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2515(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2352(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar initially gained against Swiss franc on Monday but gave up ground as markets turned their focus to the Federal Reserve's meeting due this week. Friday's data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index edged 0.1% higher in March after rising 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the PCE price index increased 4.2% after climbing 5.1% in February.The so-called core PCE price index gained 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in March after rising 4.7% in February. The Fed tracks the PCE price indexes for its 2% inflation target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8975 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9005 (19th April High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8910(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8895(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against Japan's yen on Monday after the Bank of Japan maintained its low policy rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday stood pat on its monetary policy, sending the yen 1.7% lower in the biggest daily drop since early February.The Bank of Japan kept its loose monetary settings unchanged but revamped its guidance on the future path of policy, and announced a broad-perspective review with a planned time frame of around one to one-and-a-half years. The Japanese yen slid 0.2% to 136.67 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 137.00(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 137.30(March 9th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 136.05 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 135.88(March 9th low)
Equities Recap
European stock market is closed on account of Labour Day holiday.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Monday as the U.S. dollar held firm, with cautious traders awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike decision later this week.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,980.78 per ounce by 0759 GMT. U.S. gold futures shed 0.5% to $1,989.20.
Oil fell on Monday as concern over the economic impact of the U.S. Federal Reserve potentially raising interest rates and weaker Chinese manufacturing data outweighed support from new OPEC+ supply cuts taking effect this month.
Brent crude fell $1.64, or 2.0%, to $78.69 a barrel at 0947 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid $1.66, or 2.2%, to trade at $75.12.